Philippine weather forecasters face angry storm

MANILA (AFP) - – A storm threatens to wallop the Philippines but a huge computer that dominates the forecasting room of the nation's weather service is in screensaver mode showing a cartoon pattern of unexploded bombs.

While tropical storm Parma ominously hovers near the main island of Luzon, the computer has no data to receive as the main weather radar on a hilltop in the northeastern resort of Baguio is out of action -- again.

This scenario played out Tuesday when AFP visited the forecasters in Manila to examine why they failed to predict the ferocity of tropical storm Ketsana which killed nearly 300 people in and around the capital on September 26.

"Our old radar has limitations," said Fredolina Baldonado, a meteorologist at the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

"It has a blind spot to the south and that includes Metropolitan Manila."

This, she said, explained why the forecasters were unable to warn the residents of Manila before 42 centimetres (17 inches) -- the heaviest deluge in more than four decades -- was dumped on the nation's capital.

Asked why the radar was not working on Tuesday as Filipinos looked to PAGASA for guidance on tropical storm Parma, senior weather forecaster Rene Paciente gave a matter-of-fact explanation about the radar breakdown in Baguio.

A landslide had disturbed the alignment of its antenna, and as a result could not transmit data to the forecaster's headquarters, Paciente said.

Stuck in the middle of the Pacific typhoon belt, the impoverished Southeast Asian archipelago's first line of defence for dangerous weather is PAGASA, an acronym which without any intended irony is the Filipino word for "hope".

The weather service has a limited network of radar stations to track an average of 19 typhoons that approach the country each year, with nine or 10 of those storms making landfall to claim a combined tally of hundreds of lives.

While weather forecasters around the world are often subject to derision for getting their predictions wrong, PAGASA is a particularly vulnerable target with critics using the events of recent weeks to strengthen their arguments.

However, PAGASA operations chief Nathaniel Cruz insisted he was in charge of a "24/7" system, manned at any one time by up to four forecasters.

They were supported by as many as three cartographers who plotted the weather systems on graphs, up to two weather satellite experts and two meteorological telecommunications men, he said.

Cruz also rejected one common assertion that PAGASA was not getting the government funding needed to perform properly.

"It is incorrect to say PAGASA has been left begging for funds," Cruz said, adding the government had given the weather service four billion pesos (about 86 million dollars) for equipment upgrades over the past five years.

Nevertheless, PAGASA's headquarters is an old, squat building on a sprawling government compound in northern Manila that has been overrun by squatters.

One side of the street houses PAGASA, the Bureau of Internal Revenue and other government agencies, while on the other side and behind the buildings are shanty towns housing thousands of squatters.

Cruz urged people to focus on a plan to buy five modern Doppler radars worth 100,000 dollars each that would dramatically improve PAGASA'S forecasting abilities.

The radars would give the country warnings six hours ahead of typhoons, and would be able to predict the intensity of rain expected to fall within an area as small as two square kilometres (0.8 square miles).

The plan is for two of the radars to be installed next year on either seaward flank of Manila, remedying the current radar's blind spot that caused the deadly miss when tropical storm Ketsana hit.

Arroyo reveals 2nd reason for nationwide state of calamity

Aside from allowing local governments to access their calamity funds, President Arroyo bared a second reason Saturday for placing the entire country under a state of calamity: to go after profiteers.

Fears have been raised that the government was taking advantage of the crisis caused by tropical storm “Ondoy" to raise funds for next year’s general election.

Critics wondered why other provinces not affected by Ondoy were also being allowed to tap emergency funds when they are not really suffering from a state of calamity.

But Mrs. Arroyo explained that the nationwide state of calamity will allow government to run after traders who will go to areas not under a state of calamity to sell their products at higher prices.

“What was observed was that when there was price control imposed in a given area some supplies were diverted. So (this was also) for purposes of price control," she said at a meeting of the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC).

On the other hand, she said one of the shortcomings of the present Price Law is that the local government can use the calamity funds in an actual state of calamity and not for risk reduction.

Earlier, Favila admitted the decision stemmed from the executive session of the NDCC in Cainta, Rizal, where they discussed the matter.

“There are unscrupulous traders who go to nearby areas not under a state of calamity, then sell at higher prices. We discussed it in the NDCC meeting’s executive session," he said in an interview on dzBB radio.

He said the nationwide state of calamity was a recommendation of the National Price Coordinating Council. -

(UPDATE) 'Pepeng could be super-typhoon'

Major dams to release water for buffer storage

MANILA - Weather bureau PAGASA on Thursday said typhoon Pepeng (international codename Parma) is forecast to bring more rains and very strong winds in Northern Luzon including Metro Manila once it makes landfall Saturday afternoon.

"There is a big possibility that it will become a supertyphoon. This is a very strong storm, packing winds of 175 kilometers per hour and gusts of up to 210 kph. Most likely it will make landfall in the afternoon of Saturday. That is when it is most critical," Nathaniel Cruz, PAGASA director for operations, said in a press briefing.

Cruz said Pepeng is much stronger than last Saturday's tropical storm Ondoy (international codename Ketsana), which brought record amounts of rainfall and triggered the worst flooding in Metro Manila in 40 years.

"In terms of wind intensity, Ondoy was only half of the strength of Pepeng. When it made landfall, Ondoy only had winds of 85 kph while Pepeng is 175 kph. However, we cannot really compare the two because it was the rain that was really destructive about Ondoy," he said.

He added: "Our major concern with Pepeng is the disastrous winds - 175 kph to 210 kph. We expect typhoon Pepeng to intensify further as it moves towards northern Luzon."

He said the weather bureau will give a forecast on the typhoon's estimated rainfall intensity before it makes landfall.

As of 10 a.m., the new typhoon was sighted 520 km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar and is moving 24 kilometers per hour in the general direction of Northern Luzon and the Taiwan area.

Cruz said the typhoon is forecast to make landfall over Aurora-Isabela by Saturday morning. It said the typhoon will bring occasional rains over the eastern section of Luzon and Visayas and more frequent rains in Samar and Bicol Thursday afternoon.

Storm Signal no.1 remains hoisted in Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes, he added.

Similar to 'Reming'

Cruz also likened typhoon Pepeng to super-typhoon Reming (international codename Durian), which killed at least 734 people in the country in 2006.

"This could be like Reming. We are not just talking here about Metro Manila. We are talking of the entire Luzon area where there is probability of devastation in terms of flooding...and wind," he said.

Dr. Susan Espinueva, assistant weather services chief of the Hydro Metrological Division of PAGASA, said major dams in Northern Luzon will be releasing water today until Friday before Pepeng hits.

"All major dams in Northen Luzon wll be releasing water to lower the water level so that when the storm hits, there will be a buffer of storage capacity in our dams and the spillover will not be as severe,' she said.

The government has started preparing more evacuation centers as it anticipates more people to be displaced by the new storm.

Disaster officials fear more rains spawned by the typhoon could trigger another massive flood as streets and drainage systems remain clogged from the tons of debris left by the previous deluge caused by tropical storm Ondoy (international codename Ketsana).

As of 6 a.m., the National Disaster Coordinating Council said more than half a million families of 2.50 million individuals have been affected by Ondoy in 11 regions, including Metro Manila and the Calabarzon area in southern Luzon.

It said that a total of 686,699 people are now staying in 726 evacuation centers. It said Ondoy’s death toll has reached 277 and 42 were still missing.

The storm, which also devastated Vietnam and Cambodia, damaged crops and infrastructure worth at least P4.80 billion.